by Joseph Matthews

The Philippines' recent provocative actions in the South China Sea have challenged regional stability, posing risks to the unity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its centrality in regional affairs.

Since its inception in 1967, ASEAN has been anchored in unity and a collective voice. Its core principle holds that regional security must be managed collectively through inclusive consensus, rather than shaped by external forces.

However, the recent moves of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s administration in the South China Sea, including its deliberate infringements and provocations against Chinese personnel and its collusion with external forces, suggest that Manila is intentionally stoking tensions with Beijing at the behest of external forces.

By escalating frictions through illegal intrusions and aligning tightly with external militaries, Manila risks eroding the regional consensus that has helped shield Southeast Asia from zero-sum confrontation.

Manila's rapidly deepening defense alignment with external actors also poses a severe challenge to ASEAN unity and centrality.

The recent launch of formal maritime boundary negotiations between the Philippines and Japan, alongside expanded reciprocal access agreements and multi-nation joint military exercises, introduces a destabilizing factor into the regional security architecture.

While bilateral diplomacy is standard statecraft, demarcating boundaries or coordinating defense postures with outside powers in highly sensitive waters can be perceived as an attempt to bypass established multilateral channels and fundamental principles of ASEAN, raising serious regional concerns.

Traditionally, ASEAN has favored resolving overlapping maritime claims through intra-bloc consensus and direct negotiations with China, such as the ongoing efforts to finalize a binding Code of Conduct. However, unilateral moves backed by external forces with their own ulterior motives can fragment this regional consensus. Such actions give the impression that individual member states are choosing sides in a larger containment strategy rather than anchoring themselves in ASEAN's non-aligned framework, which is the heart and soul of ASEAN centrality.

For nearly two decades, I have advocated for ASEAN non-alignment and neutrality. When member states rely heavily on outside powers to anchor the bloc's security architecture, they compromise its collective bargaining power and weaken Southeast Asia's ability to act as a neutral buffer.

Last but not least, for the sake of long-term regional stability, a regional consensus is necessary.

The Philippines, alongside its regional partners, must recognize that true security in Southeast Asia cannot be bought through external deterrence or introducing missile systems of external powers at the expense of regional cohesion.

Enduring stability lies in reinforcing the ASEAN-led multilateral architecture, prioritizing diplomatic de-escalation, and ensuring that bilateral partnerships supplement, rather than subvert, the shared goal of a peaceful, unified and autonomous Southeast Asia.

Editor's note: Joseph Matthews is a senior professor at the BELTEI International University in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Xinhua News Agency.